农业发展与经济增长的变结构协整关系研究

运用变结构协整理论研究我国农业发展与经济增长的长期均衡关系,采用循序检验法确定变结构点,发现在1961年和1980年农业发展与经济增长均衡关系发生突变;对1952～2003年的数据进行变结构协整检验,得到两段变结构形式,表现为参数变结构的水平趋势项飘移型和状态开关型协整关系,最后建立了误差修正模型。     

投入产出乘数模型与其扩展方法

在投入产出模型里引入凯恩斯乘数理论，建立能够计算结构化乘数的投入产出乘数模型，是近年来投入产出领域探讨较多的一个问题。从前提假设、乘数效应的传导机制和最终推导结果等方面对凯恩斯乘数模型和投入产出乘数模型进行比较，指出建立投入产出乘数模型将凯恩斯乘数进行结构化处理，应该从放宽前提假设条件入手，并以引入列向旁侧效应为例对原模型进行了扩展。     

论动态的外汇储备规模

我国已持续几年外汇储备增加额超千亿美元.有观点认为,忧虑中国累积过多外汇储备是不必要的.但更多的人认为这对我国的经济发展产生了许多负面影响.笔者认为,判断一国的外汇储备是否合理,应该以该国能够实际掌握的外汇资源数量来衡量.因此我国的外汇储备的真实规模仍然比较适度,应该以动态的眼光看待我国的外汇储备规模.     

中国农村土地使用制度:形态变迁与实证分析

二十多年来 ,中国政府一方面强调农户承包经营土地的长期稳定 ,一方面鼓励土地使用制度的不断创新 ,因而中国农地使用制度呈现出“两田制”、“规模规营”、‘四荒’使用权拍卖”、“股份合作制”等多种形态。而“土地调整”和“使用权流转”一直是中国农地制度变迁中的普遍现象。文章对上述中国农地使用制度变迁进行了实证性的分析。     

开放经济条件下江苏农业结构战略性调整的对策措施

江苏既是一个经济大省，又是一个农业大省，在开放经济条件下，江苏的农业发展面临着国内外市场的双重挑战，因此，必须充分发挥江苏农业的比较优势，加快农业结构的战略性调整，其中特别重要的是：应当以主导产业为依托，推进农业产业化经营；大力发展名、特、优等地方品种，使之成为壮大县域特色经济的亮点；大力发展外向型农业，确立江苏农业的国际竞争优势；同时，还要构建开放经济条件下促进江苏农业结构战略性调整的保障体系。     

南通市资源节约型产业体系的构建与发展对策

我国资源支撑粗放型经济增长已经难以承受,建立节约型社会迫在眉睫。如何构建资源节约型的产业体系是建设节约型社会的重要内容。文章设计了资源节约型产业体系的分析框架,是一个具备资源利用现状分析层→资源利用效率分析层→应用层的三层分析流程。从重点行业和典型企业两个角度对南通市分别采用聚类分析和问卷调查的方法分析其产业的资源利用状况和效率,发现其产业结构陈旧、加工层次低,仍以高耗能、高污染排放的行业为主,但其资源减量和提高效益的空间较大。最后提出根据资源利用效率和污染排放确定的产业调整重点,把握调整力度,加快资源节约技术的推广和应用,建立资源型战略联盟。     

Evaluating Projects and Assessing Sustainable Development in Imperfect Economies

We are interested in three related questions:(1) How should accounting prices be estimated?(2) How should we evaluate policy change in animperfect economy? (3) How can we check whetherintergenerational well-being will be sustainedalong a projected economic programme? We do notpresume that the economy is convex, nor do weassume that the government optimizes on behalfof its citizens. We show that the same set ofaccounting prices should be used both forpolicy evaluation and for assessing whether ornot intergenerational welfare along a giveneconomic path will be sustained. We also showthat a comprehensive measure of wealth,computed in terms of the accounting prices, canbe used as an index for problems (2) and (3)above. The remainder of the paper is concernedwith rules for estimating the accounting pricesof several specific environmental naturalresources, transacted in a few well knowneconomic institutions.     

Economic liberalization and welfare in a model with an informal sector

The paper reexamines the conventional results relating to inflow of foreign capital, removal of protectionism and structural reform programmes, in a small open economy in terms of a two-sector general equilibrium model with an informal sector. The paper shows that in the presence of labour market distortion and a protectionist policy, inflow of foreign capital may be desirable irrespective of the pattern of trade of the economy due to its favourable impact on welfare. But the welfare implications of tariff reductions and/or structural adjustment programmes, such as deregulating the formal sector labour market, depend crucially on the economy's trade pattern. The paper provides an answer to the question as to whether in a developing economy labour market reform and tariff reform should go hand-in-hand or whether one should precede the other for welfare improvement.
JEL classification: F10, F13, F21, O17.     

开放中的经济增长与政策选择——当前经济增长态势分析

对外开放与高资本积累共同推动了中国经济增长 ,其中政府的主导作用非常鲜明。文章首先指出 :1)尽管现在贸易摩擦频繁 ,但中国的贸易增长仍有空间 ;2 )虽然现实的储蓄缺口已经消失 ,但考虑到大量农村劳动力需要转移 ,资本形成缺口依然很大 ,仍有引进外资的必要。文章接着分析 :由于中国在对外开放与资本形成机制上存在着政府干预形成的严重扭曲 ,从而在增长过程中不断累积着“结构扭曲”的风险。面临金融开放 ,这种扭曲的结构会变得更加脆弱。因此 ,如何充分利用外部资源加快中国的非农化进程 ,同时消除制度性扭曲 ,优化资源配置方式 ,减少外部冲击风险 ,促进经济增长成为本文探讨的主线。     

Structural Decomposition Analysis of Physical Flows in the Economy

Many environmental problems can be attributedto the extraction and emissions of physicalsubstances. Increasing our understanding of theeconomic and technological driving forcesbehind these physical flows can contribute tosolving the environmental problems related tothem. The input-output framework is a usefulsetting in which to integrate detailedinformation about economic structure andphysical flows. In this article a specificmethod in input-output analysis is reviewed,namely Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA).It is based on comparative static analysis,which decomposes historical changes of a policyvariable into determinant effects. SDA has beenapplied, for example, to analyze the demand andtechnological driving forces of energy use,CO₂-emissions and various other pollutantsand resources. This article examines thetheoretical aspects of structuraldecomposition, in particular those concerningphysical flows and environmental issues.Furthermore, the article includes an extensivesurvey of empirical studies.